Photovoltaic (PV) risk analysis serves to identify and reduce the risks associated with investments in PV projects. The key challenge in reacting to failures or avoiding them at a reasonable cost is the ability to quantify and manage the various risks. There are several interpretations of the concept of risk, but in general risk can be defined as the probability of failure multiplied by the consequences of its failure.
Best practice guidelines to improve the operation of PV power systems are often only applied as long as the recommended actions have advantages for the executors, the Engineering, Procurement, Construction (EPC) and Operation and Maintenance (O&M) companies and for the investors whose main interests focus on low risks and maximum profit from an economic point of view. This leads to the key question: How can you demonstrate the effectiveness of measures and justify their application? Because the technical best solution is not always the economic best solution. And before you are able to evaluate the cost-benefit ratio, the following question arises: How to quantify the basic impact of technical risks on performance and reliability?
In a first approach we reviewed scientific literature and technical reports to compare and assess the common practices for quantifying the impact of technical risks. Limitations and challenges were compiled and selection criteria defined for the four methods:
- Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA)
- Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA)
- Reliability, Availability, and Maintainability (RAM) analysis
- Cost Priority Number (CPN) method